Sustainable velocity
53 pts
per sprint
10,000 trial model
Agile Velocity & Capacity Forecaster
Set capacity assumptions and export a planning memo.
Target confidence
99.3%
by Sprint 6
P50 completion
S5
Oct 13, 2026
P80 commitment
S6
Oct 23, 2026
P90 risk case
S6
Oct 23, 2026
Monte Carlo completion curve
Cumulative probability of full backlog delivery
10,000 randomized velocity passes
Velocity reliability
12-sprint delivery trend
Reliability: 93%Rolling average = 3 sprints
Value vs. effort
RICE backlog matrix
Prioritization queue
Enterprise RICE backlog
| Feature | Reach | Impact | Effort | RICE | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSO + SCIM provisioning | 92 | 3 | 5 | 49.7 | Quick Win |
| Portfolio delivery cockpit | 88 | 3 | 8 | 28.1 | Strategic Bet |
| AI release-risk assistant | 76 | 3 | 13 | 12.3 | Strategic Bet |
| Bulk workflow approvals | 81 | 2 | 3 | 48.6 | Quick Win |
| Regional data residency | 54 | 3 | 13 | 9.3 | Resource Trap |
| Legacy report builder | 38 | 1 | 8 | 3.1 | Resource Trap |
| Slack incident digest | 66 | 2 | 3 | 35.2 | Quick Win |
| Dark-mode preference | 32 | 1 | 2 | 15.2 | Fill-in |
DMAIC anomaly audit
Delivery risk register
Scope Creep
High+18% unplanned story points in the last three sprints
Define phase
Quality Regression
HighEscaped defects rose above the 2.0 / sprint control limit
Analyze phase
Cycle Time Variance
MediumP85 cycle time is 1.6× the team baseline
Measure phase
Executive memo generator
Delivery PRD & DMAIC Risk Register
Current scenario, commitment bands, prioritization, and controls: formatted as Markdown.
# Delivery PRD: Agile Velocity & Capacity Forecast ## Decision summary - **Backlog scope:** 260 story points - **Delivery team:** 8 engineers at 72% focus factor - **Sprint cadence:** 10 business days - **Target milestone:** Sprint 6 (Oct 23, 2026) ## Forecast - **Expected sustainable velocity:** 53.0 story points / sprint - **Monte Carlo trials:** 10,000 - **P50 completion:** Sprint 5 (Oct 13, 2026) - **P80 completion:** Sprint 6 (Oct 23, 2026) - **P90 completion:** Sprint 6 (Oct 23, 2026) - **Probability of target:** 99.3% ## Prioritized delivery bets - **SSO + SCIM provisioning**: Quick Win; RICE 49.7 - **Portfolio delivery cockpit**: Strategic Bet; RICE 28.1 - **AI release-risk assistant**: Strategic Bet; RICE 12.3 - **Bulk workflow approvals**: Quick Win; RICE 48.6 - **Slack incident digest**: Quick Win; RICE 35.2 ## DMAIC delivery risk register - **Scope Creep (High)**: +18% unplanned story points in the last three sprints. Control owner: Delivery Lead; DMAIC phase: Define. - **Quality Regression (High)**: Escaped defects rose above the 2.0 / sprint control limit. Control owner: Delivery Lead; DMAIC phase: Analyze. - **Cycle Time Variance (Medium)**: P85 cycle time is 1.6× the team baseline. Control owner: Delivery Lead; DMAIC phase: Measure. ## Planning note Approve the P80 planning commitment (Sprint 6) and protect focus capacity through weekly scope-control review.